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Why Is Gold Rebounding After Trade War Plunge? | Analyzing XAU/USD's Volatile Recovery

Gold's rollercoaster session saw prices dip below $3,What will ADA be worth in 5 years?000 before bargain hunters emerged

Investors continue viewing bullion as a hedge against potential US stagflation risks

Technical indicators suggest critical resistance near $3,060 could determine short-term direction

The precious metal demonstrated remarkable resilience during Monday's turbulent trading, with XAU/USD clawing back from an early 2% decline to stabilize near $3,030. Market participants attributed the initial selloff to escalating trade measures between Washington and Beijing, which triggered broad-based risk aversion across financial markets.

Several macroeconomic factors are converging to influence gold's trajectory:

  • Growing expectations for aggressive Fed easing (markets now pricing five 2024 rate cuts)
  • Sustained central bank demand (PBOC's fifth consecutive month of gold accumulation)
  • Deteriorating risk sentiment as trade barriers multiply globally

Technical analysts note that the $3,000 level continues acting as psychological support, with multiple attempts to break below this threshold meeting strong buying interest. The daily chart reveals:

  • Immediate resistance clustered between $3,057-$3,063
  • Potential upside targets at $3,111 (intraday R1) and $3,167 (record high)
  • Downside support zones at $2,990-$3,004 and $2,940-$2,955

Market participants will closely monitor upcoming US inflation data for clues about the Fed's policy path. The CME FedWatch Tool currently shows nearly 50% odds for a May rate cut, reflecting heightened expectations for monetary easing amid growing economic uncertainties.

Seasoned traders suggest watching these key developments:

  • PBOC's continued gold accumulation patterns
  • Shifts in Fed rate cut probabilities
  • Technical confirmation above $3,060 resistance
  • Progress (or deterioration) in US-China trade negotiations

While short-term volatility may persist, the broader fundamental backdrop - characterized by central bank demand, geopolitical tensions, and shifting rate expectations - continues supporting gold's appeal as a portfolio diversifier. Market technicians emphasize that a sustained break above $3,060 could open the path toward retesting record highs.

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